# WARSAT SCAN — 2026-04-09 18:19 UTC

## CHANGE DETECTION — vs 17:24 UTC (55 minutes earlier)

### 🆕 NEW
- **Hormuz traffic dropped further** — now **7 ships/24h** (was 11). Reuters: "virtual standstill"
- **Netanyahu explicit statement** — "**There is no cease-fire in Lebanon**" and Israel "continuing to strike Hezbollah with force"
- **Lincoln combat ops ended** — USS Abraham Lincoln stood down from **38 consecutive days of combat operations** on first day of ceasefire

### 🔺 ESCALATED
- **Hormuz chokepoint tightening** — dropped from 11 to 7 transits in 55 minutes. Hundreds of tankers waiting to re-enter. Iran warned ships to "keep to its waters"
- **Lebanon ceasefire confusion** — Hezbollah says they were told ceasefire includes them, but Israel continues strikes. Gap widening between US/Iran deal and Lebanon front

### 🔻 DE-ESCALATED
- **Carrier combat intensity** — Lincoln stood down from 38-day continuous combat ops

### ⏸️ STATUS QUO
- **Nuclear sites** — Natanz 75% damaged, Fordow 30% damaged (unchanged)
- **Internet blackout** — 40+ days, 1-4% connectivity (unchanged)
- **B-52s** — stood down, returned to Fairford with bombs (unchanged)
- **US troop presence** — 50,000 troops, 2 carriers (unchanged)

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## FULL SCAN RESULTS

### ✈️ AIR ASSETS — 🟢 LOW
| Asset | Status |
|-------|--------|
| **B-52s** | Returned to RAF Fairford with payloads intact after ceasefire |
| **B-1B** | Not surged, standard ops |
| **B-2** | Participated in strikes, returned to US |
| **Operation Epic Fury** | Concluded — ~50 bombers committed |

### 🚢 NAVAL ASSETS — 🟡 MEDIUM
| Asset | Status |
|-------|--------|
| **USS Abraham Lincoln** | In region, stood down from 38 days combat ops |
| **USS George H.W. Bush** | In region, replacing USS Gerald R. Ford |
| **Total US troops** | 50,000 in Middle East |

### 🎯 GROUND/NUCLEAR — 🟡 MEDIUM
| Site | Status |
|------|--------|
| **Natanz** | 75% damaged, 440.9kg HEU at 60%, 12-week breakout |
| **Fordow** | 30% damaged, underground portions functional |
| **Bushehr** | No damage, Russia-linked, stable |

### 💻 CYBER/ECONOMIC — 🟠 HIGH
| Indicator | Status |
|-----------|--------|
| **Hormuz traffic** | 7 ships/24h (was ~140 normal) — 🔺 ESCALATED |
| **Internet blackout** | 40+ days, 1-4% connectivity — unchanged |
| **Oil (WTI)** | Above $100, volatile |
| **Oil (Brent)** | $96-98, volatile |

### ⚔️ PROXY FORCES — 🔴 CRITICAL
| Group | Status |
|-------|--------|
| **Hezbollah** | Israel continuing strikes — Netanyahu: "**No cease-fire in Lebanon**". 254 killed, 837 wounded. Hezbollah says they abided by ceasefire, Israel violated. |
| **Houthis** | No major activity reported |
| **Iraqi militias** | No major attacks on US bases |

### 🏗️ INFRASTRUCTURE/DIPLOMATIC — 🟡 MEDIUM
| Topic | Status |
|-------|--------|
| **Iran ceasefire** | Holding but fragile — 2-week deal |
| **Lebanon front** | NOT included — Israel explicitly continuing strikes |
| **Hormuz reopening** | Stalled — 7 ships/24h, hundreds waiting |
| **Negotiations** | Islamabad talks starting Friday (Pakistan-mediated) |

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## SUMMARY

| Level | Count | Change |
|-------|-------|--------|
| 🔴 CRITICAL | 1 | Unchanged (Hezbollah/Lebanon) |
| 🟠 HIGH | 2 | Unchanged (Hormuz, Internet) |
| 🟡 MEDIUM | 4 | Unchanged |
| 🟢 LOW | 6 | Unchanged |

**BOTTOM LINE:**

Hormuz traffic dropped from 11 to **7 ships/24h** in 55 minutes — tightening further. Netanyahu explicitly confirmed "**no cease-fire in Lebanon**" — Israel continuing strikes. USS Lincoln stood down from 38-day combat ops. B-52s home. Ceasefire holding on Iran front, but **Lebanon remains outside the deal** and flash point risk persists.

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*Scan completed: 2026-04-09 18:19 UTC*