# SIGINT Daily Analysis — April 10, 2026

## Executive Summary

**STATUS: CEASEFIRE FRAGILE — ISLAMABAD TALKS DAY**

| Metric | Status |
|--------|--------|
| Ceasefire | 3 days old, cracking |
| Hormuz Traffic | 7 ships/24h (vs 130+ normal) |
| Lebanon Front | Israel continuing strikes (254+ killed) |
| Islamabad Talks | Scheduled for today |
| Oil Prices | Below $100/barrel |
| B-52 Activity | Returning to Fairford with payloads intact |

**ALERT LEVEL: 🟡 CAUTION**

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## Key Developments (April 9-10)

### 1. CEASEFIRE UNDER STRAIN

| Issue | Details |
|-------|---------|
| Iran's complaint | Accusing US of violating ceasefire over Lebanon strikes |
| Hezbollah | "Israel violated ceasefire, committed massacres" |
| Netanyahu | "There is no ceasefire in Lebanon" |
| Iran's threat | Considering pulling out of deal over Israel's Lebanon campaign |

**Significance:** The ceasefire explicitly does NOT cover Lebanon. Israel is exploiting this gap. Iran is under pressure from proxies to respond.

### 2. HORMUZ STATUS

| Metric | Value |
|--------|-------|
| Traffic (24h) | 7 ships |
| Normal traffic | 130+ ships/day |
| Tankers waiting | "Hundreds" according to NYT |
| Iran's position | Suspending tanker traffic over Lebanon strikes |
| Toll charges | >$1M per ship for passage |

**Assessment:** Hormuz is "effectively closed" despite ceasefire. Iran limiting transits, charging tolls. Not free navigation.

### 3. ISLAMABAD TALKS (TODAY)

| Participant | Role |
|-------------|------|
| Iran | Negotiating team |
| US | Diplomatic representation |
| Pakistan | Host/Broker |
| Focus | Two-week ceasefire terms, Hormuz reopening |

**Key issues on table:**
1. Iran's 10-point plan (sanctions relief, compensation)
2. "Real deal" vs provisional ceasefire (Trump's wording)
3. Lebanon exclusion from ceasefire
4. Hormuz tolls and traffic limits

### 4. MILITARY POSTURE

| Asset | Status |
|-------|--------|
| B-52 bombers | Returned to Fairford with payloads (ceasefire) |
| B-1B bombers | ~12 deployed to Fairford during crisis |
| B-2 stealth | Participated in Operation Epic Fury |
| US carriers | Status unknown (routine posture?) |
| Iran AD | Baseline (no surge detected) |

**Assessment:** US pulled back bombers after ceasefire. Strike package stood down. But assets remain deployable.

### 5. LEBANON FRONT (EXCLUDED FROM CEASEFIRE)

| Metric | Value |
|--------|-------|
| Killed (April 8) | 254+ in largest single day |
| Wounded | 837 |
| Israel's position | "No ceasefire in Lebanon" |
| Hezbollah response | "Abided by ceasefire, Israel violated" |

**Significance:** Israel is pressing advantage in Lebanon while Iran ceasefire holds. This creates pressure on Iran from its proxy network.

### 6. REGIONAL REACTION

| Actor | Position |
|-------|----------|
| EU (13 countries) | Joint statement welcoming ceasefire |
| Japan | Joined EU statement |
| Canada | Joined EU statement |
| Saudi Arabia | Pipeline struck by Iran (bypass route) |
| UAE/Qatar | Missile alerts during crisis |

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## THREAT ASSESSMENT

### Current Level: 🟡 CAUTION

| Indicator | Status |
|-----------|--------|
| Active strikes | NONE (ceasefire) |
| Hormuz closure | PARTIAL (severely limited) |
| Regional expansion | LEBANON ONLY (excluded from deal) |
| Nuclear escalation | AVOIDED |
| Diplomatic track | ACTIVE (Islamabad today) |

### Probability Assessment

| Scenario | Probability |
|----------|-------------|
| Ceasefire holds 2 weeks | MEDIUM (60%) |
| Ceasefire collapses | MEDIUM (40%) |
| Hormuz fully reopens | LOW (20%) |
| US re-enters conflict | LOW (15%) |
| Nuclear escalation | VERY LOW (5%) |

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## KEY QUESTIONS FOR TODAY

1. **Do Islamabad talks produce progress or stalemate?**
2. **Does Iran walk out over Lebanon?**
3. **Does Trump accept a "real deal" or push for better terms?**
4. **How many ships get through Hormuz today?**
5. **Does Israel expand Lebanon campaign further?**

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## RED LINE STATUS

| Red Line | Status |
|----------|--------|
| Hormuz closure | 🟡 PARTIAL (effectively closed) |
| US strikes on Iran | 🟢 CEASEFIRE |
| Iran strikes on US | 🟢 CEASEFIRE |
| Israel-Lebanon war | 🔴 ACTIVE (excluded from deal) |
| Nuclear strike | 🟢 AVOIDED |
| Oil > $150 | 🟢 NOT REACHED |

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## WATCH LIST (Next 24 Hours)

1. **Islamabad talks outcome** — any announcements?
2. **Hormuz traffic count** — is it increasing?
3. **Trump Truth Social** — any statements on deal progress?
4. **Iranian statements** — threatening to pull out?
5. **Lebanon death toll** — continued Israeli strikes?

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## FILES UPDATED

- `memory/analysis_reports/sigint-2026-04-10-0600.md` — This report
- `memory/analysis_reports/latest_analysis.txt` — Updated pointer

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**Next Analysis:** April 11, 2026 at 06:00 UTC