# WARSAT SCAN — 2026-04-09 17:24 UTC

## AIR ASSETS

### B-52/B-1/B-2 Bombers — 🟢 LOW
- **Finding:** US bombers returned to RAF Fairford with payloads intact after ceasefire announced. Operation Epic Fury concluded. About 50 of 140 combat-ready bombers were committed. All three types (B-1, B-2, B-52) participated.
- **Source:** 19FortyFive, Business Insider, Wikipedia
- **Significance:** Strike capability stood down. No active bomber surge detected.

## NAVAL ASSETS

### Carrier Strike Groups — 🟡 MEDIUM
- **Finding:** USS Abraham Lincoln in region. USS George H.W. Bush strike group heading to Middle East. Two-carrier presence maintained.
- **Source:** Wikipedia, Pravda EN
- **Significance:** Sustained naval presence during ceasefire negotiations. Third carrier would signal major escalation.

## GROUND/DEFENSE/NUCLEAR

### Natanz Nuclear Facility — 🟡 MEDIUM
- **Finding:** 75% damaged from strikes. 440.9kg HEU at 60% enrichment. 12-week post-strike breakout estimate. IAEA access denied.
- **Source:** missilestrikes.com, Wikipedia
- **Significance:** Significant damage but not destroyed. Underground portions may still be operational.

### Fordow Underground Facility — 🟡 MEDIUM
- **Finding:** 30% damaged. Deep underground enrichment harder to strike.
- **Source:** missilestrikes.com, Moscow Times
- **Significance:** Hardened target partially degraded but still functional.

### Bushehr Nuclear Reactor — 🟢 LOW
- **Finding:** No reports of damage or unusual activity. Russia-linked facility.
- **Source:** Moscow Times
- **Significance:** Radiological risk site appears stable. Not targeted.

## CYBER/INFO/ECONOMIC

### Oil Prices — 🟡 MEDIUM
- **Finding:** WTI back above $100 (up 6% to $100.27). Brent at $96-98. Goldman Sachs forecasts Q2: $90 Brent, $87 WTI. Oil rose on Hormuz uncertainty.
- **Source:** CNBC, Trading Economics, Reuters
- **Significance:** War premium partially unwound but supply concerns persist. Volatile.

### Hormuz Shipping Traffic — 🟠 HIGH
- **Finding:** 11 vessels transited in 24 hours since ceasefire (4 Iranian, 4 Greek, 1 Chinese). Hormuz "effectively closed" — Iran limiting transit, charging $1M+ tolls. Iran threatening to suspend tanker traffic over Lebanon strikes.
- **Source:** Guardian, Wikipedia, CBS News
- **Significance:** Restricted but not closed. Major chokepoint risk persists. Iran may pull out of ceasefire over Lebanon.

### Iranian Internet Blackout — 🟠 HIGH
- **Finding:** Now 40+ consecutive days — longest nationwide internet disruption ever recorded globally. Connectivity at 1-4% of normal. 9 upstream providers vanished (33% reduction in international connectivity). No indication when it will be lifted.
- **Source:** Wikipedia, Whisper Security, SBS News
- **Significance:** Information control active. Possible cover for internal operations. Nobel laureate warned of "massacre under cover of blackout."

## PROXY FORCES

### Hezbollah/Lebanon — 🔴 CRITICAL
- **Finding:** Israel carried out largest wave of strikes since March 1 — 100 targets in 10 minutes. **254 killed, 837 wounded** in Lebanon. Hezbollah says they were told ceasefire includes them, Israel says it does NOT. Netanyahu agreed to talks with Lebanon on disarming Hezbollah. Iran threatening to pull out of ceasefire over Lebanon strikes.
- **Source:** Guardian, Reuters, NYT, CBS News
- **Significance:** **Ceasefire does NOT include Lebanon.** Major escalation risk. Iran may withdraw from deal over Israeli strikes.

### Houthis — 🟢 LOW
- **Finding:** No major Houthi activity reported in past 24 hours.
- **Source:** No reports
- **Significance:** Red Sea attacks paused during ceasefire.

### Iraqi Militias — 🟢 LOW
- **Finding:** No major militia attacks on US bases reported.
- **Source:** No reports
- **Significance:** Proxy escalation paused on Iraq front.

## INFRASTRUCTURE/DIPLOMATIC

### Ceasefire Status — 🟡 MEDIUM
- **Finding:** Two-week ceasefire announced April 7. Negotiations in Islamabad starting Friday (Pakistan-mediated). Hormuz reopening is condition. Ceasefire "tested by confusion" — Iran says safe passage possible, but Hormuz effectively closed. Trump warning Iran to comply with "real agreement."
- **Source:** NYT, Reuters, Guardian
- **Significance:** Ceasefire holding but fragile. Hormuz status unclear. Iran may pull out over Lebanon.

### Regional Diplomacy — 🟡 MEDIUM
- **Finding:** 13 European countries + Japan + Canada issued joint statement welcoming ceasefire. EU calling for Lebanon inclusion. NATO offering minesweepers, warships, radar to keep Hormuz open.
- **Source:** Reuters, Guardian
- **Significance:** International pressure to maintain ceasefire. Back-channel diplomacy active.

## SUMMARY

| Level | Count |
|-------|-------|
| 🔴 CRITICAL | 1 (Hezbollah/Lebanon) |
| 🟠 HIGH | 2 (Hormuz, Internet Blackout) |
| 🟡 MEDIUM | 6 (Carriers, Natanz, Fordow, Oil, Ceasefire, Diplomacy) |
| 🟢 LOW | 6 |

**BOTTOM LINE:**

Ceasefire holding on Iran front BUT **Lebanon is NOT included** — Israel continuing major strikes (254 killed). Iran threatening to withdraw from ceasefire over Lebanon. Hormuz "effectively closed" — limited transit, $1M+ tolls. Iranian internet blackout now longest ever recorded (40+ days). B-52s stood down. No immediate full war, but **Lebanon remains the flash point that could collapse the ceasefire.**

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*Scan completed: 2026-04-09 17:24 UTC*