# SIGINT Daily Analysis — April 8, 2026

## Executive Summary

**STATUS: CEASEFIRE AGREED — DE-ESCALATION UNDERWAY**

Two-week ceasefire announced at ~8 PM ET (April 7), just before Trump's deadline. Pakistan brokered the deal. Strait of Hormuz to reopen with "conditional passage."

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## Key Developments Overnight

### Ceasefire Terms
| Aspect | Details |
|--------|---------|
| **Broker** | Pakistan mediated |
| **Duration** | 2 weeks (negotiations ongoing) |
| **Condition** | Iran reopens Strait of Hormuz |
| **Next talks** | Friday, April 10 in Islamabad |

### Iran's 10-Point Plan (NBC)
1. Secure transit protocol in Strait of Hormuz (Iran retains control)
2. Full compensation for damages to Iran
3. Removal of all primary and secondary sanctions
4. UN Security Council resolutions lifted
5. Release of all frozen Iranian assets abroad
6. Binding UN Security Council resolution adopting all provisions

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## Market Reaction

| Market | Change |
|--------|--------|
| **Oil** | Plunged 15%, now below $100/barrel |
| **Stocks** | Futures rallying, Asia markets up |
| **Natural gas** | Sharply lower |

Context: Oil peaked at ~$126/barrel during the crisis, up 70%+ YTD.

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## Ongoing Concerns

- **"Conditional passage"** — Iran's wording suggests limits, not full free navigation
- **Missile alerts continued** overnight — UAE, Qatar, Israel reported interceptions
- **Ceasefire is provisional** — 2 weeks to finalize, could collapse
- **Israel expects Iranian attacks to continue** during interim (Israeli media)

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## Timeline

- **April 7, ~8 PM ET** — Ceasefire announced
- **April 10** — Islamabad negotiations begin
- **April 21-22** — Ceasefire deadline (2 weeks from announcement)

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## Assessment

**De-escalation for now**, but:
- This is a pause, not a peace
- Iran extracted concessions (sanctions relief talks, compensation)
- Hormuz "conditional" = Iran still controls the chokepoint
- If talks fail in 2 weeks, conflict resumes

**Alert Level:** 🟡 CAUTION (downgraded from 🔴 CRITICAL)

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## Sources

- Reuters, NYT, Guardian, NBC, Bloomberg (all April 7-8, 2026)