{
  "version": "1.0",
  "updated": "2026-04-17T13:55:00Z",
  "description": "Leading indicators for geopolitical conflict prediction",

  "indicators": {
    "air": {
      "b2-deployment": {
        "name": "B-2 Stealth Bomber Deployment",
        "precursor_for": ["hardened_target_strike", "nuclear_facility_attack"],
        "confidence": 0.85,
        "lead_time": "24-72 hours",
        "current_status": "LOW",
        "last_observed": "2026-04-02"
      },
      "b52-overflight": {
        "name": "B-52 Overland Operations",
        "precursor_for": ["sustained_air_campaign", "air_superiority"],
        "confidence": 0.75,
        "lead_time": "immediate to 48 hours",
        "current_status": "CRITICAL",
        "last_observed": "2026-04-15"
      },
      "tanker-surge": {
        "name": "Tanker Surge",
        "precursor_for": ["large_scale_air_operations"],
        "confidence": 0.80,
        "lead_time": "12-48 hours",
        "current_status": "HIGH",
        "last_observed": "2026-04-10"
      },
      "isr-orbit": {
        "name": "ISR Persistent Surveillance",
        "precursor_for": ["strike_imminent"],
        "confidence": 0.70,
        "lead_time": "6-24 hours",
        "current_status": "HIGH",
        "last_observed": "2026-04-15"
      }
    },
    "sea": {
      "carrier-position": {
        "name": "Carrier Strike Group Position",
        "precursor_for": ["power_projection", "strike_operations"],
        "confidence": 0.90,
        "lead_time": "immediate to 1 week",
        "current_status": "CRITICAL",
        "last_observed": "2026-04-15"
      },
      "amphibious-deployment": {
        "name": "Amphibious Assault Ship",
        "precursor_for": ["marine_operations", "coastal_assault"],
        "confidence": 0.75,
        "lead_time": "1-2 weeks",
        "current_status": "CRITICAL",
        "last_observed": "2026-04-13"
      },
      "destroyer-density": {
        "name": "Destroyer Density Near Hormuz",
        "precursor_for": ["missile_defense", "blockade_enforcement"],
        "confidence": 0.80,
        "lead_time": "immediate",
        "current_status": "HIGH",
        "last_observed": "2026-04-16"
      }
    },
    "diplomatic": {
      "shuttle-intensity": {
        "name": "Diplomatic Shuttle Intensity",
        "precursor_for": ["ceasefire_negotiation", "deal_closing"],
        "confidence": 0.85,
        "lead_time": "24-72 hours",
        "current_status": "HIGH",
        "last_observed": "2026-04-12"
      },
      "coalition-formation": {
        "name": "Coalition Formation",
        "precursor_for": ["joint_operations", "burden_sharing"],
        "confidence": 0.75,
        "lead_time": "1-4 weeks",
        "current_status": "HIGH",
        "last_observed": "2026-04-17"
      }
    },
    "economic": {
      "oil-price": {
        "name": "Oil Price Level",
        "precursor_for": ["economic_pressure", "political_pressure"],
        "confidence": 0.90,
        "lead_time": "immediate political effects",
        "current_status": "HIGH",
        "last_observed": "2026-04-17"
      },
      "supply-chain": {
        "name": "Supply Chain Disruption",
        "precursor_for": ["economic_crisis"],
        "confidence": 0.80,
        "lead_time": "2-4 weeks",
        "current_status": "HIGH",
        "last_observed": "2026-04-17"
      }
    },
    "proxy": {
      "proxy-activation": {
        "name": "Proxy Force Activation",
        "precursor_for": ["regional_escalation", "asymmetric_attack"],
        "confidence": 0.75,
        "lead_time": "24-72 hours",
        "current_status": "MEDIUM",
        "last_observed": "2026-04-16"
      },
      "ceasefire-adherence": {
        "name": "Ceasefire Adherence",
        "precursor_for": ["conflict_resolution", "ceasefire_collapse"],
        "confidence": 0.85,
        "lead_time": "immediate",
        "current_status": "LOW",
        "last_observed": "2026-04-17"
      }
    },
    "humanitarian": {
      "civilian-casualties": {
        "name": "Civilian Casualty Rate",
        "precursor_for": ["international_pressure"],
        "confidence": 0.80,
        "lead_time": "1-2 weeks",
        "current_status": "MEDIUM",
        "last_observed": "2026-04-15"
      },
      "humanitarian-access": {
        "name": "Humanitarian Access",
        "precursor_for": ["humanitarian_crisis"],
        "confidence": 0.85,
        "lead_time": "2-4 weeks",
        "current_status": "CRITICAL",
        "last_observed": "2026-04-17"
      }
    }
  },

  "predictions": {
    "air_superiority_achieved": {
      "requires": ["b52-overflight:CRITICAL", "isr-orbit:HIGH+"],
      "output": "Air superiority declared. Ground operations possible within 72 hours."
    },
    "major_ground_offensive": {
      "requires": ["amphibious-deployment:CRITICAL", "carrier-position:CRITICAL"],
      "output": "Ground operations within 1-2 weeks."
    },
    "ceasefire_imminent": {
      "requires": ["shuttle-intensity:HIGH+", "proxy-activation:MEDIUM-"],
      "output": "Ceasefire announcement within 72 hours."
    },
    "ceasefire_collapse": {
      "requires": ["ceasefire-adherence:CRITICAL", "proxy-activation:HIGH+"],
      "output": "Ceasefire collapse within 24-48 hours."
    },
    "economic_crisis": {
      "requires": ["oil-price:HIGH+", "supply-chain:HIGH+"],
      "output": "Economic pressure for rapid resolution OR domestic political crisis."
    },
    "nuclear_strike_imminent": {
      "requires": ["b2-deployment:CRITICAL", "isr-orbit:CRITICAL"],
      "output": "Nuclear facility strike imminent (24-72 hours)."
    }
  }
}