{
  "convergence_score": {
    "timestamp": "2026-03-17T02:59:20.930040",
    "signals_analyzed": 4,
    "signals_bullish_closure": 4,
    "convergence_confidence": 0.95,
    "signals_active": [
      "oil_spread",
      "insurance_premiums",
      "vessel_traffic",
      "reddit_hormuz_spike"
    ]
  },
  "closure_forecast": {
    "timestamp": "2026-03-17T02:59:20.930040",
    "closure_probability_72h": {
      "estimate": "95.0%",
      "confidence_level": "CRITICAL - Closure highly probable",
      "signals_converged": 4
    },
    "interpretation": "Multiple independent signals (shipping market, insurance, Reddit community, press) all pointing to imminent Hormuz stress or closure. High confidence in 72h timeframe.",
    "market_implications": {
      "oil_market": {
        "normal": "WTI $70-80, Brent $75-85, spread <$3",
        "elevated": "Spread widens to $3-8, oil prices +$10-20/barrel",
        "crisis": "Spread $8+, oil volatility 50%+, potential $110+ WTI"
      },
      "shipping_costs": {
        "normal": "P&I insurance 50-100 bps",
        "elevated": "P&I insurance 200-500 bps (+2-5x)",
        "crisis": "P&I insurance 800+ bps, many routes unavailable"
      },
      "equity_impact": {
        "sectors_affected": "Airlines (jet fuel), Chemicals, Utilities, Transportation",
        "hedging_opportunity": "Long energy, short transportation stocks"
      },
      "current_probability": "Closure 72h: 95.0%"
    },
    "recommended_monitoring": {
      "watch_next": {
        "oil_spread": "If > $5 in 24h: ALERT",
        "insurance": "If premium +100 bps in 6h: ALERT",
        "vessel_count": "If < 15 transits in 24h: ALERT",
        "reddit_volume": "If 5+ Hormuz posts in 6h: ALERT",
        "press_releases": "If State + Pentagon + Iran on same day: CRITICAL"
      },
      "update_frequency": "Shipping tracker every 6h, Reddit every 3h, SIGINT main pass 06:00 UTC",
      "alert_triggers": [
        "Oil spread jumps $2+ in single day",
        "Insurance rates spike 50%+ in 6 hours",
        "AIS shows <15 tanker transits in 24h",
        "Reddit + press both spike on Hormuz simultaneously"
      ]
    }
  }
}