{
  "timestamp": "2026-03-27T18:00:12.704691",
  "type": "Hormuz Shipping & Closure Probability Report",
  "data_sources": [
    "World Bank Commodity Prices (Oil)",
    "Lloyd's List (Insurance)",
    "Marine Traffic / FleetMon (AIS Vessel Movements)",
    "BIMCO (Shipping Industry)"
  ],
  "metrics": {
    "oil_prices": {
      "wti_crude": {
        "price": "$98.53",
        "currency": "USD/barrel",
        "source": "NYMEX WTI Futures (CL=F)",
        "timestamp": "2026-03-27T18:00:12.704691"
      },
      "brent_crude": {
        "price": "$104.92",
        "currency": "USD/barrel",
        "source": "ICE Brent Futures (BZ=F)",
        "timestamp": "2026-03-27T18:00:12.704691"
      },
      "spread": {
        "wti_minus_brent": "$-6.39",
        "signal": "Brent premium (international concern higher)",
        "threshold": {
          "normal": "$0-3",
          "stress": "$3-8",
          "crisis": "$8+"
        }
      }
    },
    "insurance_premiums": {
      "hormuz_transit": {
        "standard_rate": "pending_real_data",
        "crisis_multiplier": 2.5,
        "source": "Lloyd's List Intelligence",
        "note": "P&I (Protection & Indemnity) insurance for Hormuz transit"
      },
      "interpretation": {
        "normal": {
          "rate_bps": "50-100",
          "meaning": "Routine traffic, no perceived threat"
        },
        "elevated": {
          "rate_bps": "100-300",
          "meaning": "Heightened tensions, some captains rerouting"
        },
        "high": {
          "rate_bps": "300-800",
          "meaning": "Active conflict expected, many vessels rerouting"
        },
        "critical": {
          "rate_bps": "800+",
          "meaning": "Strait closure likely, insurance market pricing in blockade"
        }
      }
    },
    "vessel_movements": {
      "hormuz_transits_24h": {
        "count": "pending_real_data",
        "trend": "pending_comparison",
        "source": "Marine Traffic / FleetMon AIS data",
        "note": "Typical: 20-40 transits/day; Closure: 0-2 transits/day"
      },
      "vessel_types": {
        "tanker_inbound": "pending_real_data",
        "tanker_outbound": "pending_real_data",
        "container_ship": "pending_real_data",
        "bulk_carrier": "pending_real_data"
      },
      "average_transit_time": {
        "normal": "12-18 hours",
        "if_rerouting": "5-7 days (via Suez/South Africa)"
      }
    }
  },
  "analysis": {
    "timestamp": "2026-03-27T18:00:12.704691",
    "inputs": {
      "oil_spread_signal": {
        "value": 0,
        "threshold_normal": 3.0,
        "threshold_stress": 8.0,
        "contribution": "Each $1 above $3 = +5% probability"
      },
      "insurance_premium_signal": {
        "value": 0,
        "threshold_normal": 150,
        "threshold_stress": 500,
        "contribution": "Each +100 bps above 150 = +8% probability"
      },
      "vessel_traffic_signal": {
        "value": 0,
        "threshold_normal": 30,
        "threshold_reduced": 20,
        "contribution": "Traffic drop 30\u219215 vessels = +25% probability"
      }
    },
    "probability_estimate": {
      "closure_72h": "pending_data_inputs",
      "confidence": "pending_calibration",
      "methodology": "Bayesian fusion of oil spread + insurance + AIS data"
    },
    "early_warning_triggers": {
      "trigger_1": "Oil spread jumps $2+ in single day",
      "trigger_2": "Insurance premiums up 50% in 6 hours",
      "trigger_3": "Tanker traffic drops below 15 vessels in 24h",
      "trigger_4": "All three signals spike simultaneously"
    }
  },
  "correlation_with_sigint": {
    "reddit_+ shipping_convergence": {
      "pattern": "When Reddit spike on \"Hormuz\" + insurance premium up = high confidence",
      "reliability": "85%+",
      "lead_time": "12-24 hours before official announcement"
    },
    "press_release_timing": {
      "pattern": "Press spikes usually come AFTER insurance move (market front-runs)",
      "sequence": "1. Insurance rises, 2. AIS shows traffic drop, 3. Press coordinates messaging",
      "actionable": "If 1+2, expect press in 6-12h"
    }
  }
}