# Iran Intelligence Briefing
Generated: 2026-03-21T23:54:07.691046+00:00

**IRAN STATUS REPORT**

**Status Header**
**IRAN STATUS:** STRESSED
**Escalation pattern:** Steps 1 (internal economic stress inferred from Kharg Island oil export vulnerability) and 3 (proxy network potential activation implied by US-Iran conflict) **partially active**
**Last updated:** 2026-03-21T23:53:29.169608+00:00

**Metric Dashboard**
| Metric | Current | Direction | Severity | Confidence |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| IRR/USD black market | **N/A (Error)** | N/A | unknown | L (Error) |
| Proxy activity index | **0 (Houthi), 0 (PMF)** | → (stable) | normal | H (UKMTO, CENTCOM) |
| Crude exports | **Inferred Vulnerability (Kharg Island)** | ↓ (implied) | watch | M (Kpler blog, indirect) |
| Enrichment level | **N/A (No Report)** | N/A | unknown | L (No ISIS report) |
| Factional balance | **N/A (No Signal)** | N/A | unknown | L (No Iran International headlines) |
| Cyber activity | **Low (0 advisories)** | → (stable) | normal | H (CISA) |
| Internet shutdown index | **No Shutdown Detected** | → (stable) | normal | H (NetBlocks) |

**Escalation Pattern Assessment**
Internal economic stress is inferred from the highlighted vulnerability of Kharg Island, handling 94% of Iran's crude exports. The US-Iran conflict's impact on fertiliser exports and the repricing of crude oil markets suggest potential economic strain. However, direct proxy activity and cyber operations remain at low levels. The absence of enrichment level reports and factional balance signals introduces uncertainty.

**US Domestic Translation**
Within the next 14-30 days, the inferred internal economic stress in Iran may lead to increased oil market volatility, potentially affecting US gasoline prices. The current low levels of proxy and cyber activity suggest minimal direct impact on US domestic security. However, the situation warrants close monitoring due to the partially active escalation pattern.

**Raw Signal JSON**
```json
{
  "signals": [
    {
      "signal_type": "financial",
      "half_life": "days",
      "severity": "unknown",
      "confidence": "L",
      "source": "bonbast.com",
      "lag_to_us_impact_days": null,
      "signal_name": "rial_usd_black_market_rate",
      "value": null,
      "error": true
    },
    {
      "signal_type": "physical",
      "half_life": "days",
      "severity": "normal",
      "confidence": "H",
      "source": "UKMTO",
      "lag_to_us_impact_days": 7,
      "signal_name": "proxy_activity_index_houthi",
      "value": 0
    },
    {
      "signal_type": "physical",
      "half_life": "days",
      "severity": "normal",
      "confidence": "H",
      "source": "CENTCOM",
      "lag_to_us_impact_days": 7,
      "signal_name": "proxy_activity_index_pmf",
      "value": 0
    },
    {
      "signal_type": "financial",
      "half_life": "weeks",
      "severity": "watch",
      "confidence": "M",
      "source": "Kpler blog",
      "lag_to_us_impact_days": 14,
      "signal_name": "iran_crude_export_vulnerability",
      "value": "Kharg Island (inferred)"
    },
    {
      "signal_type": "structural",
      "half_life": "weeks",
      "severity": "unknown",
      "confidence": "L",
      "source": "ISIS",
      "lag_to_us_impact_days": null,
      "signal_name": "enrichment_level",
      "value": null
    },
    {
      "signal_type": "structural",
      "half_life": "months",
      "severity": "unknown",
      "confidence": "L",
      "source": "Iran International",
      "lag_to_us_impact_days": null,
      "signal_name": "factional_balance",
      "value": null
    },
    {
      "signal_type": "physical",
      "half_life": "days",
      "severity": "normal",
      "confidence": "H",
      "source": "CISA",
      "lag_to_us_impact_days": 7,
      "signal_name": "iran_cyber_activity_level",
      "value": "Low"
    },
    {
      "signal_type": "financial",
      "half_life": "days",
      "severity": "normal",
      "confidence": "H",
      "source": "NetBlocks",
      "lag_to_us_impact_days": 3,
      "signal_name": "iran_internet_shutdown_detected",
      "value": false
    }
  ]
}
```
