# Warsat2 Baseline — Known Events & Cumulative Figures (Tiered)

## Tier Legend
- **[T1]** REPORTED — Direct statement from primary source
- **[T2]** CONFIRMED — Multiple sources agree, no dispute  
- **[T3]** DERIVED — Logical inference from T1/T2 facts
- **[T4]** ASSESSED — Analytical judgment with uncertainty
- **[T5]** SPECULATIVE — Informed guess, low confidence

## Metadata
- Baseline created: 2026-04-17T02:09:00Z
- Last updated: 2026-04-22T01:48:00Z (warsat scan update)
- Coverage period: 2026-02-28 through 2026-04-22

## Ceasefire/Conflict Status
- [T1] [2026-04-21] Ceasefire EXTENDED INDEFINITELY at Pakistan's request; Iran has not submitted "unified proposal" | Guardian, AP, CNN
- [T2] Original ceasefire date: 2026-04-08 (2-week ceasefire agreed) | Sources: Axios, AP, Reuters
- [T2] Original ceasefire expiry: 2026-04-21 | Derived from 14-day term
- [T2] Ceasefire terms: Iran to reopen Hormuz for 14 days; Lebanon EXCLUDED from ceasefire | Sources: Multiple
- [T1] [2026-04-16] Israel-Lebanon 10-day cessation of hostilities began April 16; second round of talks April 24 | State Dept, Reuters
- [T4] Current status: Ceasefire EXTENDED — Hormuz effectively closed (3 ships/24h vs 130+ normal); Lebanon PAUSED (10-day truce); Blockade ongoing | Assessment from multiple indicators

## Cumulative Figures (as of 2026-04-22)
- [T1] [2026-04-20] Iran casualties: 3,375 (Iranian forensic chief) | AP — REVISED FROM 2,000+
- [T2] US casualties: 13 service members | Multiple sources
- [T2] Israeli casualties: 19 (Iranian missiles/drones) | Multiple sources
- [T1] [2026-04-20] Lebanese casualties: 2,000+ killed, 1M+ displaced | Wikipedia, Reuters — REVISED FROM 1,300+
- [T1] [2026-04-21] Oil price: $98.48/barrel (Brent) | Reuters, NYT, CNBC
- [T1] Internet blackout: 53+ days — longest in global history | NetBlocks/Wikipedia

---

## Domain: AIR

### Known Events
- [T1] [2026-04-17] B-52s, B-2s, B-1s confirmed used against Iranian ballistic missile facilities; B-52s flying over Iranian territory | Reuters, NBC
- [T2] [2026-04-16] B-52s deployed during Iran war; flew over Iran after US air superiority gained | Wikipedia, 19FortyFive
- [T1] [2026-04-10] B-52 bombers returning to Fairford with payloads intact (ceasefire) | Flight tracking, base spotters
- [T1] [2026-04-08] 10,000 additional US troops deployed to Middle East; USS George H.W. Bush CSG en route | TheDefenseNews
- [T1] [2026-04-08] B-1B bombers: ~12 deployed to Fairford during crisis | Flight tracking, base spotters
- [T1] [2026-04-08] B-2 stealth participated in Operation Epic Fury | Flight tracking, Whiteman AFB reports
- [T2] [2026-03-??] 40,000+ US personnel across bases and naval assets | DoD statements, base reports

### Current Asset Positions
- [T1] B-52 Bombers: Returned to Fairford after ceasefire; some deployed for overflight | Flight tracking, base reports
- [T3] B-2 Stealth: Used in strikes; status unclear post-ceasefire | Derived from pre-ceasefire deployment
- [T1] B-1 Lancers: ~12 at Fairford | Flight tracking, base reports
- [T3] Tanker Orbits: Active supporting operations | Derived from continued strike capability
- [T4] ISR Aircraft: Sustained orbits over Iran (no recent public reports) | Assessment from pre-ceasefire patterns
- [T2] Fighters: Carrier-based (Lincoln, Ford); no bomber forward-deployment | USNI, CENTCOM
- [T4] Growlers: No recent activity reported | Default: no info = baseline
- [T4] AWACS: No recent activity reported | Default: no info = baseline
- [T4] JSTARS: No recent activity reported (rare aircraft) | Default: no info = baseline
- [T1] Cargo Surge: 10,000+ troops deployed | DoD statements

### Derived Assessments
- [T3] Air supremacy achieved | Derived: B-52 overflight + no Iranian AD response reported
- [T4] Ground operations likely within 1-2 weeks | Assessment: Amphibious + carrier positioned + air supremacy

---

## Domain: SEA

### Known Events
- [T1] [2026-04-17] Hormuz blockade day 3; CENTCOM audio warning ships "prepare to be boarded"; 10 vessels turned back | Reuters, CNN, NBC
- [T1] [2026-04-17] US-sanctioned supertankers entered Gulf despite blockade | Reuters
- [T1] [2026-04-16] USS George H.W. Bush deployed March 31, off Namibia, circumnavigating Africa; 6,000 troops aboard | Stars and Stripes, USNI News
- [T1] [2026-04-16] Boxer ARG with 4,200 Marines expected end of April | TheDefenseNews
- [T1] [2026-04-14] US Navy blockading all ships entering/leaving Iranian ports near Hormuz; Trump warned Iranian ships will be "eliminated" | Reuters
- [T2] [2026-04-14] Two carrier strike groups in theater (Lincoln + Ford) | USNI, CENTCOM
- [T1] [2026-04-21] Hormuz traffic: 3 ships/24h (new low, vs 130+ normal) — effectively closed | Reuters
- [T1] [2026-04-19] US seized Iranian cargo ship M/V Touska near Hormuz — first blockade interception | AP
- [T2] [2026-04-10] Hormuz traffic: 7 ships/24h (vs 130+ normal) — effectively closed | Marine Traffic, port sources
- [T2] [2026-04-10] Iran charging >$1M per ship for Hormuz passage | Shipping industry sources
- [T1] [2026-03-??] 150 Iranian warships, all submarines, 97% of naval mine stockpile destroyed | DoD assessment

### Current Asset Positions
- [T2] Carrier Strike Group: USS Abraham Lincoln (CSG-3), USS Gerald R. Ford (CSG-12), USS George H.W. Bush (en route) | USNI, CENTCOM
- [T2] Aegis Destroyers: Multiple near Hormuz for blockade enforcement | CENTCOM, NBC
- [T3] Submarines: Assumed present (rarely visible) | Derived from CSG standard complement
- [T1] Amphibious Ships: Boxer ARG with 4,200 Marines arriving end April | TheDefenseNews
- [T3] Sealift/MSC: Active; surge capacity available | Derived from logistics requirements
- [T1] IRGC Navy: "Maximum combat alert"; vows retaliation; threatens infrastructure | IRGC statements, CENTCOM

### Derived Assessments
- [T3] Ground operations capability: Amphibious + Marines → coastal assault possible within 1-2 weeks
- [T4] Blockade sustainability: High (carrier + destroyer presence); Iran export capacity degraded

---

## Domain: LAND

### Known Events
- [T1] [2026-04-17] Fordow entrance buildings heavily damaged; facility "no longer accessible" | Reuters, satellite imagery
- [T1] [2026-04-20] Natanz: 75% destroyed (revised from 95%) | missilestrikes.com, Reuters — CONTRADICTION FLAGGED
- [T1] [2026-04-17] Natanz: 95% destroyed (repeated strikes with ground-penetrating munitions) | missilestrikes.com, IAEA
- [T1] [2026-04-08] Iran fired cluster munitions toward Tel Aviv at ~3 AM local (post-ceasefire) | CNBC
- [T1] [2026-04-08] Iranian ballistic missiles at Israel, Saudi Arabia, UAE, Kuwait, Jordan, Qatar post-ceasefire | ISW, wire services
- [T1] [2026-04-07] IDF struck S-300 sites in Kahrizak (Tehran Province) | ISW
- [T1] [2026-04-04] IDF struck S-300 sites in Kahrizak | ISW
- [T1] [2026-04-04] Bavar-373 or S-300 shot down US F-15E inside contested Iranian airspace | SOFREP, Time
- [T1] [2026-03-21] US struck Natanz again | Multiple sources
- [T1] [2026-03-02] Satellite imagery confirmed fresh damage at Natanz | Wikipedia, ISW
- [T1] [2026-02-28] Iran conducted missile barrages on Israeli cities and US bases in UAE, Qatar, Bahrain | Wikipedia
- [T1] [2026-02-28] War crime: US Tomahawk struck Shajareh Tayyebeh Girls' Elementary School, Minab (168 killed) | NYT, Washington Post, NPR, CNN, CBS

### Current Asset Positions
- [T1] Patriot/THAAD: 4 Patriot batteries in region (Saudi Arabia, Qatar); THAAD 29-43% committed; interceptor stockpiles dwindling | ISW, DoD
- [T2] Iranian Air Defense: Degraded but NOT neutralized; S-300/Bavar-373 still operational and killing aircraft | ISW, SOFREP
- [T1] Iranian Missile TELs: Active; launching ballistic missiles at regional targets | ISW
- [T3] Drone Launch Sites: Reduced tempo vs early war; Shahed/Geran operations continuing | Derived from sporadic reports

### Nuclear Facilities Status
- [T1] Natanz: 95% destroyed — repeatedly struck with ground-penetrating munitions | missilestrikes.com, IAEA, satellite imagery
- [T1] Fordow: 30% damaged; entrance buildings destroyed; deep underground core may remain intact | satellite imagery, Reuters
- [T2] Bushehr: No strike or damage reporting; IAEA monitoring continues | IAEA
- [T2] Arak: 60% damaged | missilestrikes.com
- [T2] Parchin: 50% damaged; IDF strikes in vicinity | missilestrikes.com, ISW
- [T4] Pickaxe Mountain: No reporting (possibly new/undeclared site) | Default: no info = unknown

### Derived Assessments
- [T3] Iran nuclear capability: Severely degraded but not eliminated; breakout time extended from days to weeks
- [T4] Iranian air defense: Partially functional but unable to prevent B-52 overflight

---

## Domain: CYBER

### Known Events
- [T1] [2026-04-21] Oil $98.48/barrel; climbing toward $100 if Hormuz remains closed | Reuters, NYT, CNBC
- [T1] [2026-04-17] Oil ~$99/barrel after ceasefire failure (down from $118 peak) | Reuters
- [T1] [2026-04-16] Iranian cyber attacks on US water and energy sectors; exploiting PLCs/ICS | POLITICO, NY Times
- [T1] [2026-04-14] CISA Advisory AA26-097A: Iran-affiliated actors targeting Allen-Bradley/Rockwell Automation ICS | CISA, FBI, NSA
- [T1] [2026-04-14] CyberAv3ngers (Shahid Kaveh Group) — IRGC-affiliated — expanding DDoS, wipers, AI-enhanced spear-phishing | Unit42/Palo Alto
- [T1] [2026-04-08] Iranian hackers exploiting vulnerabilities in US water and energy sectors | POLITICO, NYT
- [T1] [2026-04-08] Brent crude 64% surge in March to $118; 4-5% jumps on blockade news | Reuters
- [T1] [2026-04-01] Urals (Russian) at $115.98/bbl (+195% from Feb) — massive windfall for Russia | Moscow Times, Oil Price API
- [T1] [2026-04-01] US gasoline >$4/gallon (+30% since Feb 28) — highest since August 2022 | Fortune

### Current Indicators
- [T2] Iranian Cyber Activity: ESCALATING — active campaigns vs US water/energy ICS | CISA, Unit42
- [T4] US Cyber Operations: No public reporting on US offensive ops | Default: classified
- [T3] Social Media Campaigns: Active on all sides | Derived from typical wartime info ops
- [T1] Oil Prices: ~$99/barrel (Brent) | Reuters
- [T1] [2026-04-21] Hormuz Shipping Traffic: 3 ships/24h (new low, vs 130+ normal) | Reuters
- [T2] Hormuz Shipping Traffic: 7 ships/24h (vs 130+ normal) — effectively closed | Marine Traffic
- [T2] War Risk Insurance: 0.2-0.4% per transit (up from 0.125%); WRS surcharges active | Lloyd's
- [T4] Iranian Rial: Depressed (exact rate TBD) | Derived from sanctions + war pressure
- [T3] Gold Prices: Elevated (war premium) | Derived from typical safe-haven flows

### Derived Assessments
- [T4] Cyber escalation likely if war continues: Iran has demonstrated capability and intent
- [T3] US infrastructure vulnerable: Water/energy sectors confirmed targeted

---

## Domain: PROXY

### Known Events
- [T1] [2026-04-20] Israel entrenching hold on south Lebanon; told residents to stay out of border belt and Litani River area | Reuters
- [T1] [2026-04-17] Lebanon war: 486 killed, 1,313 wounded in 24 hours; Israel hit 100+ targets in 10 minutes | Reuters, AP, Al Jazeera
- [T1] [2026-04-17] IDF killed Hezbollah leader Naim Qassem's personal secretary and nephew | Multiple sources
- [T1] [2026-04-17] Anti-tank missiles killed 2 Israeli soldiers, wounded 5 more | Multiple sources
- [T1] [2026-04-16] Hezbollah launched rockets at 13 northern Israeli towns (10+ launches/hour) | Wikipedia, NYT, Guardian
- [T1] [2026-04-14] Houthis threaten to resume attacks on commercial ships | Forbes
- [T1] [2026-04-14] IRGC: 400 units on standby (army + IRGC + law enforcement) | IRGC statements
- [T2] [2026-04-10] Lebanese casualties: 1,400+ by early April | Wikipedia, Al Jazeera, ISW
- [T1] [2026-04-08] Iraqi militias: 41 drone attacks on US bases; announced halt for two weeks following ceasefire | ISW, Boston Globe
- [T1] [2026-04-08] Hezbollah fired rockets at Haifa, Golan Heights, central Israel; first anti-ship cruise missile at Israeli warship | Wikipedia, ISW
- [T1] [2026-04-01] Houthis launched ballistic missiles at Israel; threatening Bab el-Mandeb | NYT, Fox News
- [T1] [2026-02-28] War crime: Israeli white phosphorus on Yohmor, Lebanon (HRW verified) | Human Rights Watch
- [T1] [2026-03-06] War crime: Perfidy — Israeli soldiers disguised as medical vehicles, killed 41 civilians | UN report

### Current Proxy Status
- [T1] Hezbollah: FULL WAR — Lebanon excluded from Iran ceasefire; 486+ killed/24h | Reuters, AP
- [T1] Houthis: Threatening Bab el-Mandeb; suspended Red Sea attacks since Oct 2025 | NYT, Forbes
- [T1] Iraqi Militias: Halted operations for 2 weeks per ceasefire; 41 drone attacks on US bases prior | ISW
- [T3] Syrian Forces/Iranian Corridor: Israel striking Syrian targets; corridor under pressure but not severed | Derived from sporadic reports

### Derived Assessments
- [T4] Hezbollah escalation likely: Lebanon war intensity increasing despite Iran ceasefire
- [T3] Houthi activity watch: If Iran escalates, Houthis may resume Red Sea attacks

---

## Domain: INFRA

### Known Events
- [T1] [2026-04-17] Iran internet blackout: 48 days (1,128+ hours) — longest in global history; economic impact $1.8bn | NetBlocks, Wikipedia
- [T1] [2026-04-16] Iran attacks on Turkey; Iran claimed false flag | Multiple sources
- [T1] [2026-04-16] Iran demands $270bn war compensation; China-Russia coordinating response | Reuters
- [T1] [2026-04-14] UNSC: Russia and China vetoed Hormuz shipping resolution | PBS, Reuters
- [T1] [2026-04-14] Trump: "It won't be pleasant" if ceasefire ends without deal | Reuters
- [T1] [2026-04-10] Islamabad talks (April 10) — Iran, US, Pakistan | Axios
- [T1] [2026-04-10] Iran's 10-point plan: sanctions relief, compensation | Iranian statements
- [T1] [2026-04-08] Iran proposed suspending nuclear activity for up to 5 years; VP Vance sought 20-year; Trump rejected 5-year | Axios
- [T1] [2026-04-08] Oman FM: "for now, the world has stepped back from disaster" | Axios, AP
- [T1] [2026-04-08] Pakistan PM personally requested Trump extend deadline by 2 weeks | Axios, AP
- [T1] [2026-04-08] Iran airspace completely closed to civilian traffic; multiple countries' airspace restrictions cover entire Middle East | Safe Airspace DB
- [T1] [2026-04-04] Pakistan-mediated ceasefire proposal; Islamabad talks scheduled | Axios, CNN, AP
- [T1] [2026-04-01] Trump: "We'll be leaving soon" — war could wrap up in "2-3 weeks" | CBS News, CNN
- [T1] [2026-04-01] China, not Pakistan, was real force behind Iran ceasefire agreement (Wang Yi: 26 phone calls) | India Today

### Current Infrastructure Status
- [T1] Iranian Internet: 48 days blackout (1-4% of normal connectivity) — longest in global history | NetBlocks
- [T4] Iranian Power Grid: Trump threatened 15 critical grid nodes; ceasefire paused this; 30% immediate loss estimated if struck | Assessment from pre-ceasefire threats
- [T1] Flight Radar Over Iran: COMPLETELY CLOSED — largest airspace closures in modern history | Safe Airspace DB
- [T1] Port Activity (Bandar Abbas): Iranian warship sunk by US-Israeli airstrike; reduced capacity | Reuters

### Diplomatic Channels
- [T2] Shuttle Diplomacy (Oman/Qatar): Active but fragile; Oman FM cautious | Axios, AP
- [T2] UN Security Council: GRIDLOCKED — Russia/China veto; no legal framework for Hormuz force | PBS, Reuters
- [T1] Pakistan Mediation: Staged by White House; China actual broker | India Today
- [T3] Spy Satellites/Imagery: Maxar/Planet Labs imagery used by ISW for daily BDA | Derived from ISW reports

### Derived Assessments
- [T4] Diplomatic resolution possible: Multiple channels active but core disagreements remain
- [T3] China-Russia alignment: Both vetoed UNSC resolution; coordinating response to Iran compensation demands

---

## Thresholds for "NEW" Reporting

The extraction agent should report events as "NEW" when they exceed these thresholds:

### Casualty Thresholds
- Iran casualties: Report if change > 10
- US casualties: Report if change > 1
- Israeli casualties: Report if change > 1
- Lebanese casualties: Report if change > 10

### Asset Movement Thresholds
- Carrier: Report if position change > 500 km
- Destroyers: Report if position change > 200 km
- B-52/B-2: Report if new deployment or orbit detected
- Fighter squadrons: Report if surge (>3 additional) detected

### Facility Damage Thresholds
- Nuclear facilities: Report ANY confirmed damage
- Military bases: Report if strike confirmed
- Infrastructure: Report if major outage > 4 hours

### Economic Thresholds
- Oil price: Report if change > 5% in 24h
- Gold price: Report if change > 3% in 24h
- Iranian Rial: Report if change > 10% in 24h

### Cyber Thresholds
- Iranian cyber attacks: Report any confirmed major campaign
- US cyber ops: Report any confirmed operation

### Proxy Thresholds
- Hezbollah rockets: Report if > 50 launched in 24h
- Houthi attacks: Report any commercial vessel strike
- Iraqi militia attacks: Report any US base attack

---

## Usage Instructions for Extraction Agents

### How to Use This Baseline

1. **Before scanning**: Read this baseline.md file to establish known events and current positions

2. **During scanning**: For each domain, compare findings to baseline:
   - If event is already in Known Events → Skip (already recorded)
   - If event is NEW and exceeds threshold → Add to Known Events with source and TIER
   - If asset position changed beyond threshold → Update Current Asset Positions

3. **After scanning**: Update the "Last updated" timestamp in Metadata

4. **Cumulative figures**: Only update if you have a reliable source confirming the change

5. **Format for Known Events**:
   ```markdown
   - [TIER] [YYYY-MM-DD] Brief description | Source URL
   ```

6. **Format for Asset Positions**:
   ```markdown
   - [TIER] Monitor Name: [POSITION/STATUS] as of YYYY-MM-DD | Source
   ```

### Tier Assignment Rules

- **T1**: Direct quote or statement from primary source (Reuters, AP, government statements)
- **T2**: Multiple sources agree; satellite imagery; official reports
- **T3**: Logical inference from multiple T1/T2 facts
- **T4**: Analytical judgment based on incomplete information
- **T5**: Speculation; single unverified source; anonymous claims

### When to Reset Baseline

- Major escalation (war declaration, nuclear strike)
- Significant time gap (>30 days without update)
- User explicitly requests fresh baseline

---

## Extraction Queue

- [x] Ceasefire/Conflict Status populated
- [x] Cumulative figures sourced
- [x] AIR domain events and positions populated
- [x] SEA domain events and positions populated
- [x] LAND domain events and positions populated
- [x] CYBER domain events and indicators populated
- [x] PROXY domain events and status populated
- [x] INFRA domain events and status populated
- [x] Last updated timestamp set to extraction completion
- [x] Tier labels added to all entries